‘Trump always chickens out’ tariff narrative and ‘big beautiful bill’ set stage for tumultuous June, K33 says

While activity in the crypto market remains subdued heading into the summer months, digital asset brokerage and research firm K33 said there is no reason to expect June to be quiet on the U.S. economic policy front.

The 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9, while President Donald Trump hopes to receive the "One Big Beautiful Bill" budget bill from the Senate by July 4 — both of which set the stage for a potential tumultuous end to June, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde wrote in a Tuesday report.

"We enjoyed a nice break from tariff chatter throughout most of May until Trump quashed the harmony by threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the EU before extending the tariff decision to the 90-day tariff deadline on July 9," Lunde said. "Bitcoin retraced from ATHs on Trump's EU tariff remark, and it has yet to revisit similar highs, showing the broad and consistent sensitivity of the market to tariff chatter."

Last week, Trump was introduced to a new Wall Street shorthand "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) — a jab born from the post–Liberation Day tariff pause and easing tensions with China, Lunde noted. With slogans like that circulating and the tariff deadline looming, Trump may feel pressure to play hardball as the clock runs down, the analyst warned.

At the same time, Republicans will spend June working to get Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" through the Senate and onto his desk, Lunde continued. The bill is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, primarily from corporate and individual tax cuts, as well as other relief measures and spending plans. The Senate's debates on the bill and its potential amendments are expected to be key market drivers in the month ahead, Lunde said, adding that, if approved, the bill's expansionary impact could lift market sentiment and help offset pressure from the looming return of tariffs.

Rebalancing, or selling in May to stay away?

BTC is down 3.6% over the past week, according to The Block's Bitcoin price data, primarily due to exchange-traded fund-related selling from May 29 to May 30. Prices stabilized between $104,000 and $107,000 amid low activity in both spot and derivatives markets, Lunde said.

Bitcoin ETFs saw robust inflows in May, averaging $238 million per day — making it the third-strongest month on record, the analyst noted. Between May 1 and May 28, daily inflows averaged $310 million, briefly outpacing the record set in November 2024. However, momentum reversed sharply in the final two trading days, with average outflows hitting $481 million — the largest two-day drop since late February.

Those recent outflows may reflect monthly portfolio rebalancing, Lunde explained, as bitcoin has outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq for three consecutive months, hitting all-time highs. Mandated allocation shifts and seasonal summer weakness in crypto markets likely added to the selling pressure, the analyst said, and although U.S. policy developments could break that pattern, many traders may still scale back exposure heading into the third quarter based on historical trends.

Bitcoin average return by month (2020-2025) vs returns over the past year. Image: K33.

K33 joins the corporate bitcoin accumulation race with first 10 BTC buy

Separately on Tuesday, K33 announced it had completed the purchase of 10 BTC for approximately SEK 10 million ($1.04 million) — the first transaction under its new bitcoin treasury policy. K33's operational headquarters are in Norway, but its parent company is listed on the Nasdaq First North Growth Market in Stockholm, Sweden. The firm previously raised 60 million Swedish kronor ($6.2 million) in financing to buy bitcoin.

"We expect bitcoin to be the best-performing asset in the coming years and will build our balance sheet in bitcoin moving forward," K33 CEO Torbjørn Bull Jenssen said. "This will give K33 direct exposure to the bitcoin price and help unlock powerful synergies with our brokerage operation. Our ambition is to build a balance of at least 1,000 BTC over time and then scale from there."

There are now more than 75 companies that have adopted some form of bitcoin treasury — another current driver in the market. K33 joins the likes of Tether-backed Twenty One, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, Nakamoto, and KULR in adopting the BTC acquisition model pioneered by Michael Saylor's Strategy.

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